Updated on Sunday 17 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
US 88754 (+1224) 1467820 (+24996) 268376 (+17629) 1110690 (+6143)
United Kingdom 34546 (+468) 241461 (+3457) 1058 (+11) 205857 (+2978)
Italy 31763 (+153) 224760 (+875) 122810 (+2605) 70187 (-1883)
Spain 27563 (+104) 230698 (+515) 146446 (+1663) 56689 (-1252)
France 27532 (+0) 179630 (+0) 60562 (+0) 91536 (+0)
Brazil 15662 (+700) 233511 (+13220) 89672 (+4702) 128177 (+7818)
Belgium 9005 (+46) 54989 (+345) 14460 (+159) 31524 (+140)
Germany 7938 (+41) 175752 (+519) 152600 (+1003) 15214 (-525)
Iran 6937 (+35) 118392 (+1757) 93147 (+1311) 18308 (+411)
Canada 5800 (+121) 77206 (+1247) 37832 (+924) 33574 (+202)
Netherlands 5689 (+27) 44070 (+190) 167 (+8) 38214 (+155)
Mexico 5045 (+278) 47144 (+2112) 31848 (+1397) 10251 (+437)
China 4638 (+1) 84044 (+6) 79293 (+12) 113 (-7)
Turkey 4096 (+41) 148067 (+1610) 108137 (+2004) 35834 (-435)
Sweden 3674 (+28) 29677 (+470) 4971 (+0) 21032 (+442)
India 2871 (+118) 90648 (+4864) 34224 (+3966) 53553 (+780)
Ecuador 2688 (+94) 32763 (+1296) 3433 (+0) 26642 (+1202)
Russia 2537 (+119) 272043 (+9200) 63166 (+4940) 206340 (+4141)
Peru 2523 (+131) 88541 (+4046) 28272 (+1125) 57746 (+2790)
Switzerland 1879 (+1) 30572 (+58) 27400 (+300) 1293 (-243)
Ireland 1533 (+15) 24048 (+92) 19470 (+0) 3045 (+77)
Portugal 1203 (+13) 28810 (+227) 3822 (+494) 23785 (-280)
Romania 1094 (+24) 16704 (+267) 9574 (+204) 6036 (+39)
Indonesia 1089 (+13) 17025 (+529) 3911 (+108) 12025 (+408)
Poland 915 (+8) 18257 (+241) 7175 (+257) 10167 (-24)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 307143 (+4114) 4550024 (+91715) 1613904 (+56118)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 307842 ( +3378) 4573431 ( +69527) 1628157 ( +37124)
Mon 18 May 2020 311010 ( +3169) 4640015 ( +66584) 1663735 ( +35578)
Tue 19 May 2020 313974 ( +2963) 4703573 ( +63558) 1697691 ( +33956)
Wed 20 May 2020 316737 ( +2763) 4764051 ( +60478) 1729971 ( +32280)
Thu 21 May 2020 319306 ( +2569) 4821426 ( +57375) 1760542 ( +30571)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 4638 (+1) 84044 (+6) 79293 (+12)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84039 ( +2) 78009 ( +0)
Mon 18 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84041 ( +2) 78009 ( +0)
Tue 19 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84042 ( +1) 78009 ( +0)
Wed 20 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84043 ( +1) 78009 ( +0)
Thu 21 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84044 ( +1) 78010 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 27563 (+104) 230698 (+515) 146446 (+1663)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 27298 ( +65) 221374 ( +73) 140651 ( +743)
Mon 18 May 2020 27356 ( +58) 221437 ( +63) 141331 ( +680)
Tue 19 May 2020 27409 ( +52) 221492 ( +55) 141952 ( +621)
Wed 20 May 2020 27455 ( +47) 221541 ( +48) 142519 ( +567)
Thu 21 May 2020 27497 ( +42) 221583 ( +42) 143036 ( +517)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 31763 (+153) 224760 (+875) 122810 (+2605)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 31434 ( +89) 223316 ( +444) 121520 ( +2206)
Mon 18 May 2020 31515 ( +81) 223719 ( +403) 123647 ( +2127)
Tue 19 May 2020 31589 ( +74) 224085 ( +366) 125693 ( +2046)
Wed 20 May 2020 31656 ( +67) 224417 ( +332) 127659 ( +1965)
Thu 21 May 2020 31717 ( +61) 224718 ( +301) 129543 ( +1884)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 34546 (+468) 241461 (+3457) 1058 (+11)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 34241 ( +218) 233798 ( +1668) 1331 ( +47)
Mon 18 May 2020 34438 ( +196) 235331 ( +1533) 1380 ( +49)
Tue 19 May 2020 34615 ( +177) 236740 ( +1408) 1431 ( +51)
Wed 20 May 2020 34773 ( +159) 238031 ( +1292) 1484 ( +53)
Thu 21 May 2020 34916 ( +142) 239215 ( +1184) 1539 ( +55)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 88754 (+1224) 1467820 (+24996) 268376 (+17629)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 88236 ( +1038) 1457600 ( +13768) 265174 ( +5234)
Mon 18 May 2020 89227 ( +991) 1470292 ( +12692) 270108 ( +4934)
Tue 19 May 2020 90171 ( +944) 1481961 ( +11669) 274744 ( +4637)
Wed 20 May 2020 91071 ( +899) 1492664 ( +10703) 279091 ( +4346)
Thu 21 May 2020 91926 ( +856) 1502460 ( +9796) 283155 ( +4064)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 27532 (+0) 179630 (+0) 60562 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 27379 ( +76) 174487 ( +25) 60031 ( +315)
Mon 18 May 2020 27446 ( +68) 174508 ( +21) 60316 ( +285)
Tue 19 May 2020 27507 ( +61) 174525 ( +17) 60573 ( +258)
Wed 20 May 2020 27561 ( +54) 174539 ( +14) 60806 ( +232)
Thu 21 May 2020 27609 ( +48) 174550 ( +12) 61015 ( +209)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 7938 (+41) 175752 (+519) 152600 (+1003)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 7901 ( +29) 168194 ( +67) 152104 ( +694)
Mon 18 May 2020 7926 ( +25) 168253 ( +59) 152722 ( +618)
Tue 19 May 2020 7948 ( +22) 168304 ( +51) 153270 ( +548)
Wed 20 May 2020 7968 ( +20) 168349 ( +45) 153756 ( +486)
Thu 21 May 2020 7986 ( +18) 168389 ( +39) 154186 ( +430)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 5689 (+27) 44070 (+190) 167 (+8)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 5639 ( +18) 43437 ( +72) nan ( +nan)
Mon 18 May 2020 5656 ( +16) 43501 ( +64) nan ( +nan)
Tue 19 May 2020 5670 ( +14) 43558 ( +57) nan ( +nan)
Wed 20 May 2020 5683 ( +13) 43608 ( +50) nan ( +nan)
Thu 21 May 2020 5694 ( +11) 43653 ( +45) nan ( +nan)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 9005 (+46) 54989 (+345) 14460 (+159)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 9046 ( +43) 53403 ( +92) 14302 ( +76)
Mon 18 May 2020 9085 ( +39) 53485 ( +82) 14370 ( +68)
Tue 19 May 2020 9119 ( +35) 53558 ( +73) 14431 ( +62)
Wed 20 May 2020 9151 ( +31) 53624 ( +65) 14487 ( +55)
Thu 21 May 2020 9178 ( +28) 53682 ( +58) 14536 ( +50)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 3674 (+28) 29677 (+470) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 3625 ( +45) 29885 ( +449) 5194 ( +7)
Mon 18 May 2020 3668 ( +43) 30316 ( +431) 5199 ( +4)
Tue 19 May 2020 3708 ( +40) 30728 ( +412) 5202 ( +3)
Wed 20 May 2020 3747 ( +38) 31121 ( +393) 5204 ( +2)
Thu 21 May 2020 3783 ( +37) 31495 ( +374) 5205 ( +1)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 915 (+8) 18257 (+241) 7175 (+257)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 909 ( +12) 18439 ( +293) 7340 ( +220)
Mon 18 May 2020 920 ( +11) 18721 ( +281) 7553 ( +213)
Tue 19 May 2020 931 ( +11) 18990 ( +269) 7759 ( +206)
Wed 20 May 2020 941 ( +10) 19246 ( +256) 7958 ( +199)
Thu 21 May 2020 950 ( +10) 19489 ( +243) 8149 ( +191)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 1879 (+1) 30572 (+58) 27400 (+300)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 1871 ( +3) 30249 ( +9) 27196 ( +66)
Mon 18 May 2020 1874 ( +2) 30257 ( +8) 27254 ( +58)
Tue 19 May 2020 1876 ( +2) 30264 ( +7) 27304 ( +50)
Wed 20 May 2020 1877 ( +2) 30270 ( +6) 27349 ( +44)
Thu 21 May 2020 1879 ( +1) 30275 ( +5) 27387 ( +38)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 15662 (+700) 233511 (+13220) 89672 (+4702)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 16127 ( +706) 240156 ( +11848) 87787 ( +2673)
Mon 18 May 2020 16828 ( +702) 252201 ( +12045) 90342 ( +2555)
Tue 19 May 2020 17523 ( +694) 264407 ( +12205) 92774 ( +2432)
Wed 20 May 2020 18207 ( +684) 276732 ( +12325) 95080 ( +2305)
Thu 21 May 2020 18879 ( +672) 289137 ( +12404) 97257 ( +2177)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 6937 (+35) 118392 (+1757) 93147 (+1311)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 6876 ( +26) 107844 ( +255) 89886 ( +407)
Mon 18 May 2020 6900 ( +24) 108079 ( +235) 90261 ( +376)
Tue 19 May 2020 6922 ( +22) 108295 ( +216) 90608 ( +347)
Wed 20 May 2020 6943 ( +21) 108493 ( +198) 90928 ( +320)
Thu 21 May 2020 6962 ( +19) 108675 ( +182) 91223 ( +295)

Comparison of different countries

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.